Hana’s Ledger: When Markets Bloom - Finding Calm in Vietnam’s Retail Revolution

Navigating prosperity with wisdom and grace

In my mother's generation, we had a saying: "When the tide rises, all boats float—but only the well-anchored ones stay steady." As I watch Vietnam's retail and commercial real estate sectors surge with unprecedented vigor, I'm reminded of this gentle wisdom. The numbers are remarkable—retail sales reaching $250 billion, e-commerce platforms driving 37% growth year-over-year, shopping centers maintaining 90%+ occupancy rates. Yet beneath this exciting surface lies a deeper question: How do we participate meaningfully in this prosperity without losing our footing?

Vietnam's economic transformation feels both exhilarating and overwhelming. Government incentives are flowing—including a VAT reduction from 10% to 8% on essential goods extended through mid-2025, and an ambitious 8% GDP growth target supported by flexible fiscal policies (though actual growth may vary depending on global conditions). The National Legal Portal, launched in May 2025 with AI integration and multilingual support, is streamlining business operations and reducing compliance burdens. Most significantly, the upcoming Lào Cai-Hà Nội-Hải Phòng railway—requiring $7.6 billion in total investment—promises to unlock new corridors of commerce and boost Vietnam's second-largest economic corridor. For those of us seeking to build lasting wealth, these concrete developments offer genuine opportunities—but they also require a steady heart and clear thinking.

Understanding the True Nature of This Boom

What strikes me most about Vietnam's current growth is not just its speed, but its foundation. Unlike speculative bubbles that inflate on hope alone, this expansion rests on fundamental shifts: a young, increasingly affluent population, genuine infrastructure investment, and the integration of digital and physical commerce. When major international retailers like Aeon, Lotte, and Keppel commit billions to Vietnamese markets—with several new shopping centers scheduled to open in Hanoi and other major cities in 2025 and 2026—they're responding to real demand, not manufactured excitement.

The e-commerce sector's remarkable trajectory tells a compelling story: from $22 billion in 2024 to a projected $25 billion in 2025, with long-term forecasts reaching $63 billion by 2030—though these projections remain subject to evolving market conditions and global economic factors. Major platforms like Shopee, Lazada, TikTok Shop, Tiki, and Sendo are experiencing over 37% year-on-year growth. This reflects changing consumer habits rather than temporary trends. Vietnamese shoppers are embracing both online convenience and in-store experiences, creating what economists call an "omnichannel" market. This duality is crucial for investors to understand: success lies not in choosing between digital and physical retail, but in recognizing how they strengthen each other.

The government's digital transformation program, aiming for 25% of GDP from digital economy by 2025, provides institutional support that extends beyond election cycles. When I see initiatives like the National Legal Portal making business compliance transparent and accessible, I recognize the kind of systemic improvements that create lasting investment climates rather than temporary opportunities.

Five Gentle Principles for Retail and Commercial Investment

First: Invest Where Stories Converge The most valuable retail and commercial properties sit at the intersection of multiple positive trends. Consider areas where new infrastructure projects meet established communities, where digital platforms enhance rather than replace physical experiences, or where government initiatives support genuine economic activity. The upcoming railway connecting Lào Cai to Hải Phòng—with a planned launch date of December 19, 2025, and designed to enhance connectivity for Vietnam's second-largest economic corridor—will likely benefit properties that can serve both increased logistics needs and growing consumer markets. Meanwhile, areas like Hanoi are experiencing rental rate increases of 10% in 2023, with new shopping centers maintaining occupancy rates above 85%.

Second: Think Like a Grandmother, Not a Day Trader When evaluating retail properties or commercial investments, ask yourself: "Will this still matter to families in ten years?" Shopping centers that become community gathering places, commercial buildings that adapt to changing business needs, or logistics facilities serving essential trade routes often prove more durable than properties designed for quick profits. The Vietnamese market's impressive fundamentals—retail sales reaching approximately $193.4 billion with 8.3% growth, and the retail market projected to approach $350 billion in 2025—suggest sustainable expansion rather than speculative bubbles. However, sustainable wealth comes from properties that can maintain relevance across multiple business cycles, even if actual growth differs from government targets due to global economic uncertainties.

Third: Honor the Harmony of Online and Offline Vietnam's retail evolution isn't about e-commerce replacing physical stores—it's about creating seamless experiences that honor both convenience and connection. The statistics tell this story clearly: while e-commerce surged past $25 billion, physical retail spaces maintain remarkably high occupancy rates—over 90% in major city shopping centers, with Ho Chi Minh City locations maintaining 93.5% occupancy and prime locations commanding premium rents. Properties that can support this integration—retail spaces with strong digital infrastructure, warehouses positioned for last-mile delivery (with logistics real estate showing 80% occupancy rates as supply reached 15.1 million sqm in 2024), or mixed-use developments that blend shopping, dining, and community—often command premium rents and attract stable, long-term tenants.

Fourth: Follow the Infrastructure, But Choose Your Distance Wisely Major projects like the Lào Cai-Hà Nội-Hải Phòng railway create ripple effects that extend far beyond their immediate footprint. However, properties too close to construction may face years of disruption, while those too distant miss the benefits entirely. Seek the gentle zone where you can benefit from improved connectivity without enduring the construction chaos. This requires patience and local knowledge—qualities that serve investors well throughout their journey.

Fifth: Embrace Government Support Without Depending on It Vietnam's policy environment is genuinely supportive—from the VAT reduction to 8% on essential goods (extended through mid-2025) to the ambitious National Digital Transformation Program targeting 25% of GDP from digital economy by 2025. The National Legal Portal, launched in May 2025 with integration to the national digital ID system (VNeID) and AI-powered user interaction, demonstrates institutional commitment to transparency and efficiency. These create favorable conditions for retail and commercial property investment. However, build your investment thesis on fundamentals that would survive policy changes. Properties in areas with genuine economic activity, serving real consumer needs, positioned along natural trade routes, will likely thrive regardless of specific government programs. The foreign direct investment surge—nearly $2 billion in real estate in just the first five months of 2024, a 70% increase year-on-year—suggests international confidence in Vietnam's underlying fundamentals, not just its policies.

Navigating the Digital Transformation Thoughtfully